TPP-11 flawed Victorian study shows small benefits without assessing costs

August 29, 2018: The Victorian government commissioned a study by private consultants of the impact of the TPP-11 on Victorian export firms.

The study was a late submission to the JSCOT inquiry and mentioned in the ALP critical remarks on the JSCOT report (p.86) .

Below is a link to a critical evaluation of the findings of that study, which found only modest improvements in market access for some Victorian export sectors, because Australia already has a bilateral free trade agreements with all but two of the TPP-11 countries. 

The study found that export market access gains could be offset in practice by increased competition from other TPP member countries in some export markets, and the complexity of the interactions between the TPP-11 and ongoing bilateral agreements.

The study does not contain any economic modelling or estimates of the impact of the TPP-11 on employment or economic growth in the Victorian economy as a whole.

The study does not include any evaluation of the risks and costs of the TPP-11, like ISDS and the removal of labour market testing for temporary migrant workers.

In summary, the study confirms our analysis that the market access gains from the TPP-11 are minimal, and does not evaluate any of the costs.

Download pdf of 2-page critique