TPP-11 study shows miniscule Australian growth after 15 years, ignores costs
October 24, 2017: An economic modelling study by the US Peterson Institute has admitted that the TPP without the US would have even less of the tiny economic benefits predicted for Australia with US participation.
The study, based on the usual favourable but unrealistic assumptions of no unemployment or other negative effects, predicts an increase in Australian GDP of only .5% in 2030. This compares with an average Australian GDP growth per quarter of .86% between 1959 and 2017. This means the TPP-11 predicted increase is only equivalent to about two months’ average GDP growth after 15 years, even less than the TPP-12 result of .6% of GDP after 15 years.
A Tufts University study which did measure possible employment effects found the TPP with the US would result in net losses of 39,000 in Australian employment after 10 years. This would be worse without access to the US market.
TPP-11 supporters seem desperate to claim benefits from a deal which obviously has less economic gains without access to the large US market. But last month a study by a senior United Nations economist debunked a Japanese report based on spurious assumptions which claimed larger economic benefits from the TPP 11.
The Peterson and Japanese studies do not count the very real costs of stronger medicine and copyright monopolies, rights of foreign investors to sue governments, restrictions on governments’ rights to regulate essential services and removal of labour market testing for temporary workers which have resulted in strong community resistance to the TPP agenda.